Photo Credit: David Schick

Which Denson will survive Highlander: The Densoning?

The presumption is that Mayor Nancy Denson will cruise easily to a second term, and Tim "No Relation" Denson's insurgency will end something like this:

I infamously wrote a couple of months ago that Tim had no chance to beat Nancy. I still think it's unlikely, but with election officials expecting just 21–22 percent turnout, Tim has a puncher's chance. Here's what it would take for him to win.

• Tim is going after so-called "Obama voters"—young people, low-income people and African Americans who turned out for the first black president but generally stay home, especially for a mid-term primary. The task of getting enough of them to the polls becomes easier when 5,500 votes might win this thing.

• Nancy's strength is in the suburbs and African American communities. Tim, as we said, has been going after African American voters, but Nancy has the influential pastors in her back pocket. Can he peel any away?

• The difference between Mayor Heidi Davison's win in 2006 and Gwen O'Looney's loss in 2010 was moderate Democrats, especially on the Eastside, who supported Heidi over Charlie Maddox but then Nancy over Gwen. Tim's going to win the white, liberal intown precincts (Cobbham, Boulevard, Normaltown, Five Points). But that's not enough—he needs African Americans and/or white suburbanites to switch to him, or at least stay home.

• The enthusiasm gap: Tim's core supporters seem more excited than Nancy's. Tim's campaign has really been pushing early voting, and almost 4,000 ballots have been cast, up substantially over the 2012 primary and the 2010 November mayoral runoff. Nancy's supporters may be complacent, thinking she has it in the bag.

• What is driving turnout? If it's local races, advantage Tim (see above). If it's the hotly contested GOP Senate primary at the top of the ballot, advantage Nancy (although her team is worried that Republicans will leave it blank rather than vote for a lifelong Democrat).

• Where will turnout be the highest? The District 3 commission race has gotten a lot of attention, and that district will tilt heavily toward Tim. On the other hand, District 1 will lean Nancy, while 5 should be fairly evenly split.

• The weather: The conventional wisdom is that Democrats are more easily discouraged from voting when it rains—something Gwen blamed for her loss to Nancy, who enjoyed strong support among Republicans. But tomorrow's forecast is pleasant.

All in all, Nancy is still the heavy favorite, but Tim can pull off the upset if everything breaks for him just right.